Iran -- its true folks
As any reader -- if I have any -- will attest, I have been pretty worried about Iran the load of psychos there for quite a while. Longer, actually, that the internet as we know it has existed. But we have come to the rub: they have decided to play nuclear dice with the West.
Only the most wet-behind-the-ears sort would actually "buy" their argument about research and the need for nuke power. Utter crap. This is about owning a "device" (or many of them). The real deal. And then assembling enough to blow Israel to smithereens and then threaten the West (and the oil) with a terror-bomb unless we leave the Middle East and the oil to them and Islam (their brand). And you know, given their geographic position and demographic pressures/layout, they are in a prime position to do it.
Why enough bombs to finish off Israel? Well, to start with they are in the Middle East and not adherents of the Ayatollahs (as opposed to Sunnis). Next, they are mostly Jews -- smart and armed to the teeth, with a history of handing Islam and the Arab world in general various beatings. Could the Iranians nuke them now? Rumour has it that Iran managed to buy a few loose nukes from the remains of the crumbling Soviet Union -- Ukraine is the suspected source, before the current government got a grip. They also managed to secure some excellent Chinese cruise missles and their own Shahab-3 is an excellent launch vehicle with the range to hit Zion. So, yes.
But Israel has the world's most sophisticated ABM system , both long range and short. And nobody doubts that Israel has a serious inventory of nukes of all shapes and sizes for retaliation. So while the population is concentrated, the protection is second to none, active and passive. The net of a strike by Iran now is what would then remain of Israel would "off" most of what we now know as Iran, along with, most likely, Mecca, Medina, Riyadh, Damascus -- maybe Baghdad -- Cairo, etc. Israel might focus on Iran though out of pure spite in having obliterated their country. Goodbye, Nile delta too -- just a quick nuke at the high Aswan. So the goal would have to be to totally level Israel in one strike. Evey pebble and tree. Or else.
Another glitch in those plans are the three nuclear cruise missle capable subs in the Israeli navy. You can be sure that one is always at sea and armed with nukes. Absolutely sure. So where would they be targeted? Revenge: major Arab cities and Mecca/Medina. Or just Iran plus a few choice cities? Dunno.
Iran's threat to the rest of the world to butt out of any game they may have on? Oil. Israel ... just doesn't really have one except the old MAD concept.
So let's say Israel, in very understandable self interest decides that it has to attack the Iranian nuclear centers (there are many loosely scattered sites, unfortunately for Israel). How does it do it? I can't help but think nukes unless there are some really new funky weapons devised by Israel: most of the serious sites are underground, buried underneath mountains and in deep rock bunkers. The only sure way to take that out is with a nuke ... or some agent that renders the site unpassable. And that is an even hairier prospect. How soon? If the centerfuges start spinning, then it is only because Iran needs to refine the fuel -- you can bet that the warheads are already open, ready and waiting for the fissile material. Since we know that they have just started spinning, we must see action before the weaponizing cycle finishes. And that, ladies and gentlemen is damn soon. With Sharon "sidelined" this destabilizes the position a lot, even to the extent of a military coup to initiate a survival move.
If we see any significant movement of troops, personnel or migration of persons within or in and out of Israel (or two subs put to sea), the game is on. I won't even go into the consequences for oil, Iraq, global economy, etc. It makes me weak to think of it.
Only the most wet-behind-the-ears sort would actually "buy" their argument about research and the need for nuke power. Utter crap. This is about owning a "device" (or many of them). The real deal. And then assembling enough to blow Israel to smithereens and then threaten the West (and the oil) with a terror-bomb unless we leave the Middle East and the oil to them and Islam (their brand). And you know, given their geographic position and demographic pressures/layout, they are in a prime position to do it.
Why enough bombs to finish off Israel? Well, to start with they are in the Middle East and not adherents of the Ayatollahs (as opposed to Sunnis). Next, they are mostly Jews -- smart and armed to the teeth, with a history of handing Islam and the Arab world in general various beatings. Could the Iranians nuke them now? Rumour has it that Iran managed to buy a few loose nukes from the remains of the crumbling Soviet Union -- Ukraine is the suspected source, before the current government got a grip. They also managed to secure some excellent Chinese cruise missles and their own Shahab-3 is an excellent launch vehicle with the range to hit Zion. So, yes.
But Israel has the world's most sophisticated ABM system , both long range and short. And nobody doubts that Israel has a serious inventory of nukes of all shapes and sizes for retaliation. So while the population is concentrated, the protection is second to none, active and passive. The net of a strike by Iran now is what would then remain of Israel would "off" most of what we now know as Iran, along with, most likely, Mecca, Medina, Riyadh, Damascus -- maybe Baghdad -- Cairo, etc. Israel might focus on Iran though out of pure spite in having obliterated their country. Goodbye, Nile delta too -- just a quick nuke at the high Aswan. So the goal would have to be to totally level Israel in one strike. Evey pebble and tree. Or else.
Another glitch in those plans are the three nuclear cruise missle capable subs in the Israeli navy. You can be sure that one is always at sea and armed with nukes. Absolutely sure. So where would they be targeted? Revenge: major Arab cities and Mecca/Medina. Or just Iran plus a few choice cities? Dunno.
Iran's threat to the rest of the world to butt out of any game they may have on? Oil. Israel ... just doesn't really have one except the old MAD concept.
So let's say Israel, in very understandable self interest decides that it has to attack the Iranian nuclear centers (there are many loosely scattered sites, unfortunately for Israel). How does it do it? I can't help but think nukes unless there are some really new funky weapons devised by Israel: most of the serious sites are underground, buried underneath mountains and in deep rock bunkers. The only sure way to take that out is with a nuke ... or some agent that renders the site unpassable. And that is an even hairier prospect. How soon? If the centerfuges start spinning, then it is only because Iran needs to refine the fuel -- you can bet that the warheads are already open, ready and waiting for the fissile material. Since we know that they have just started spinning, we must see action before the weaponizing cycle finishes. And that, ladies and gentlemen is damn soon. With Sharon "sidelined" this destabilizes the position a lot, even to the extent of a military coup to initiate a survival move.
If we see any significant movement of troops, personnel or migration of persons within or in and out of Israel (or two subs put to sea), the game is on. I won't even go into the consequences for oil, Iraq, global economy, etc. It makes me weak to think of it.
posted by Zaphod at Wednesday, January 11, 2006
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