Long Break
Went to Europe. Spoke to people. Realized they have no clue.
Why are people buying dollars? Everything else being equal, we should sell the crap out of it ... but then it begs the question: to buy what instead. Ah hah. The problem.
The Eurozone simply does not "get" it. They need to stimulate their economies now ... not later. Without the U.S. to buy their crap, their factories will shut, their car makers fire tens of thousands and restless youth -- prone to violent rioting -- will fill the streets. Eastern Europe -- EU zone, but not Euro-zone is going down for the 3rd time. Merkel refuses to do anything about it, even though German banks will take a horrible hit on their portfolio of Eastern-junk. Then there will be mass migration to the more stable West EU-zone. And other dislocations.
Japan "gets" it but can't force its citizens to spend anything. They are falling off of an economic cliff. Ditto Singapore and Taiwan (good time to invade, China!).
Russia ... apart from a Neo-Stalinist state in embryo, you wouldn't want to invest a wooden nickel there either. So where? Uh.... that sort of leaves the U.S. Wait, before you sound off on some drivel about gold ... gold has no value except that people ascribe value to it. The largest single use for the stuff is jewelry. And nobody is buying any of that in this economy or at those prices .... So why the prices? A hedge against inflation? Again, only so long as everyone buys into it. Therefore: a potential oil-trap. A bubble.
So you buy dollars. You buy dollars even though you know that with the presses going full-steam, this is a debased currency. It is only better -- relatively -- than any other option going. AND THAT, my friends, shows you how bad things really are.
Why are people buying dollars? Everything else being equal, we should sell the crap out of it ... but then it begs the question: to buy what instead. Ah hah. The problem.
The Eurozone simply does not "get" it. They need to stimulate their economies now ... not later. Without the U.S. to buy their crap, their factories will shut, their car makers fire tens of thousands and restless youth -- prone to violent rioting -- will fill the streets. Eastern Europe -- EU zone, but not Euro-zone is going down for the 3rd time. Merkel refuses to do anything about it, even though German banks will take a horrible hit on their portfolio of Eastern-junk. Then there will be mass migration to the more stable West EU-zone. And other dislocations.
Japan "gets" it but can't force its citizens to spend anything. They are falling off of an economic cliff. Ditto Singapore and Taiwan (good time to invade, China!).
Russia ... apart from a Neo-Stalinist state in embryo, you wouldn't want to invest a wooden nickel there either. So where? Uh.... that sort of leaves the U.S. Wait, before you sound off on some drivel about gold ... gold has no value except that people ascribe value to it. The largest single use for the stuff is jewelry. And nobody is buying any of that in this economy or at those prices .... So why the prices? A hedge against inflation? Again, only so long as everyone buys into it. Therefore: a potential oil-trap. A bubble.
So you buy dollars. You buy dollars even though you know that with the presses going full-steam, this is a debased currency. It is only better -- relatively -- than any other option going. AND THAT, my friends, shows you how bad things really are.
posted by Zaphod at Tuesday, March 03, 2009
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home