Russia still being Russia
Ceasefire, my suffering heine. Russian tanks continue to roll onwards to Tbilisi. Sarko apparently struck out, courage not withstanding. Simply put, the Russians don't give a damn. They are going for regime change. Now, it would be hard to seriously claim that Georgia was their Iraq ... a democratically elected government, no weapons to speak of -- all they had was inherited from the cold war Soviet Union -- and no ambitions except to secure their province of South Ossetia. That particular piece of land has been full of Russian "peace keepers" for the past three years, after militants and unrest effectively cleared the area of ethnic Georgians over the past 7 years. So what was left could be considered to be reliable for the Russians -- they handed out Russian passports to them after all.
The Georgian move was stupid ... plain and simple, but also perceived as necessary to stop the attacks coming from Ossetia, and re-establish the borders set at the collapse of the Soviet Union. They counted on western "allies" to guarantee their own security -- allies which notably did not show up to help them. But Georgia posed no threat to any other country. Sounds like double speak, but when looked at dispassionately, its not. Chechen troops are supporting Russian militia in cleansing areas south of Ossetia, around Gori and now, closer to Tbilisi. You want atrocities? Look there.
So Putin -- who was directing the attacks, having jetting in from Beijing -- is thumbing his nose at the West and the rest of the world: "what are you going to do about it?" The answer, is "nothing." But I am not so sure that this is going to work out for the Russians .... They seen to think that they are better off feared and respected, rather than liked and cooperative. And that, my friends, is exactly what the Russians have done and believed for millenia. Putin's intention to remain in power is exactly the actions of a Russian Czar.
They may have the money right now, because they have the commodities, but if commodity prices collapse, so too will Russia -- in contrast to the Saudis who have lots of oil and a small population, the Russians have 150 million no diversified economy. It is ALL paid for by oil and gas -- which might explain why they feel the need to secure Georgia. Given the record now: Shell, Yukos, BP, and a slew of pipeline and other oilfield confiscations, and you'd be crazy to deal with them. I suspect that the industry won't. Of course, meanwhile the stupid, stupid Pelosi and similar liberal idiots in the U.S. Congress continue to deride the oil companies to play to their public and short term political gain: the U.S. won't lift a finger to protect world energy in the climate they have fostered. To the loss of a strategic ally and the deaths of thousands. And many millions more who will now live in fear that the Russian bear can attack their countries with impunity to re-establish the Soviet/Russian empire. That attack may be military or economic, but it will come. Count on it.
But in so doing Russia may over extend itself ... the only friends will be coerced, not real friends, and in the modern age we have seen that this rarely works, if at all. The Russians will have less than 100 million people within 30 years. Less than 75 million in 50 -- demographics like that will not help them. What is it like to live in Poland or Lithuania? Latvia? Estonia? They turned off the gas spigot because a memorial to Stalin (sorry the Red Army) was removed from a city center in Estonia. For a friggin statue? I'd be arming myself like a bandit, making my country a frikkin porcupine if I were in their boots. But will they? What will the Germans do? Do the Rumanians and Bulgarians think that they are free and clean as EU members?
And here at home the Idiot-in-Chief, Dubbya, does nothing except make hollow speeches. Why are we not sending them weapons or at least humanitarian aid? Parachute the 101st to "keep the peace" around Tbilisi? Would Putin allow his forces to meet real soldiers and risk a shooting war between the U.S. and Russia over his greed for an oil pipeline. Be assured, from our point of view, this in not just about an oil pipeline that exports no energy to the U.S. and which benefits no U.S. oil company. It is about a strategic buffer keeping a corridor to the 'Stans clear of Iranian and Russian airspace, oil and gas coming from those countries outside the grasp of Russia and Iran. If not, Afghanistan is lost. So are the 'Stans ... Russia will choke them to death.
No, Georgia is about a lot more than a simple pipeline.
The Georgian move was stupid ... plain and simple, but also perceived as necessary to stop the attacks coming from Ossetia, and re-establish the borders set at the collapse of the Soviet Union. They counted on western "allies" to guarantee their own security -- allies which notably did not show up to help them. But Georgia posed no threat to any other country. Sounds like double speak, but when looked at dispassionately, its not. Chechen troops are supporting Russian militia in cleansing areas south of Ossetia, around Gori and now, closer to Tbilisi. You want atrocities? Look there.
So Putin -- who was directing the attacks, having jetting in from Beijing -- is thumbing his nose at the West and the rest of the world: "what are you going to do about it?" The answer, is "nothing." But I am not so sure that this is going to work out for the Russians .... They seen to think that they are better off feared and respected, rather than liked and cooperative. And that, my friends, is exactly what the Russians have done and believed for millenia. Putin's intention to remain in power is exactly the actions of a Russian Czar.
They may have the money right now, because they have the commodities, but if commodity prices collapse, so too will Russia -- in contrast to the Saudis who have lots of oil and a small population, the Russians have 150 million no diversified economy. It is ALL paid for by oil and gas -- which might explain why they feel the need to secure Georgia. Given the record now: Shell, Yukos, BP, and a slew of pipeline and other oilfield confiscations, and you'd be crazy to deal with them. I suspect that the industry won't. Of course, meanwhile the stupid, stupid Pelosi and similar liberal idiots in the U.S. Congress continue to deride the oil companies to play to their public and short term political gain: the U.S. won't lift a finger to protect world energy in the climate they have fostered. To the loss of a strategic ally and the deaths of thousands. And many millions more who will now live in fear that the Russian bear can attack their countries with impunity to re-establish the Soviet/Russian empire. That attack may be military or economic, but it will come. Count on it.
But in so doing Russia may over extend itself ... the only friends will be coerced, not real friends, and in the modern age we have seen that this rarely works, if at all. The Russians will have less than 100 million people within 30 years. Less than 75 million in 50 -- demographics like that will not help them. What is it like to live in Poland or Lithuania? Latvia? Estonia? They turned off the gas spigot because a memorial to Stalin (sorry the Red Army) was removed from a city center in Estonia. For a friggin statue? I'd be arming myself like a bandit, making my country a frikkin porcupine if I were in their boots. But will they? What will the Germans do? Do the Rumanians and Bulgarians think that they are free and clean as EU members?
And here at home the Idiot-in-Chief, Dubbya, does nothing except make hollow speeches. Why are we not sending them weapons or at least humanitarian aid? Parachute the 101st to "keep the peace" around Tbilisi? Would Putin allow his forces to meet real soldiers and risk a shooting war between the U.S. and Russia over his greed for an oil pipeline. Be assured, from our point of view, this in not just about an oil pipeline that exports no energy to the U.S. and which benefits no U.S. oil company. It is about a strategic buffer keeping a corridor to the 'Stans clear of Iranian and Russian airspace, oil and gas coming from those countries outside the grasp of Russia and Iran. If not, Afghanistan is lost. So are the 'Stans ... Russia will choke them to death.
No, Georgia is about a lot more than a simple pipeline.
posted by Zaphod at Wednesday, August 13, 2008
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