Monday, September 15, 2008

And now?

I will not write about the demise of Lehman or the purchase of Merrill Lynch. At least not more than the following: it is truly astounding that a handful of people could have brought down some of Wall Street's most storied investment banks. Old, respected firms ... gone. The total number of people responsible in each firm may be less than half a dozen -- the total on the street less than 50. Just remarkable.

Even more remarkable is Barack's statement this morning that all this just goes to show that banking regulation needs modernization. Modernization? Is that what you call it? The mere fact that he would choose to use those words, that glib sound bite, makes it clear to me that he understands not a single thing that has happened over the last 18 months. What about property speculation? What about risk management? What about the threats of global contamination through the use of derivative instruments? What about unbridled greed that permits a few to do so much that risks all of our financial health? What about hundreds of thousand of people who will lose their jobs? Does he think that financial services implosion will not have a lasting effect? Does he think that global banking consolidation is something easily addressed by regulation modernization? Does he understand that you need to make money to have something to tax and then spend? Hello?

To drive that nail in, I also refer to his plans to raise taxes on investment returns. Great idea, that. Just the thing to stimulate investment in our economy, to finance retirement for the baby boomers, to restore our economy to health. It is bad enough to look at a bottomless pit for social security and no cap to contributions, but his plans for investment income taxation are clueless.

And that is what is scaring me about Barack. It has become absolutely clear to me that he does not understand economics, and even worse perhaps, nobody on his staff does either. The alternative is even more frightening: he does understand and seriously intends on installing a socialist system in the United States. And not just socialist, but something far beyond that which already exisits in the "socialist" states of Europe. The United States would have a level of taxation unseen since the failed social experiments in Europe of the 1970's: failed because under any measure, the economies virtually collapsed (some went though a form of revolution such as Portugal). The U.K. fell to its knees with a three day week and because of marginal taxation rates of almost 90%, factories fell into disrepair, industry lost all competitiveness -- remember British Leyland? Only Germany, with strict financial discipline managed to struggle through -- because Germans work hard and save. Can we say that about 2000's America? No, I didn't think so.

So where is this leaving me...? I am SCARED about the concept of Palin in the White House. She would be just a heartbeat away from the Oval Office. But what is the downside of her possible ascendancy? Not much, really. You see, she is indeed smarter than Bush and we managed to survive 8 years of Bush. She would not be able to push through any neo-Christian nonsense through Congress or the Senate, both of which are and will be Democrat controlled. She would be scary for our enemies ... and by extension, us too, but maybe I can live with that.

By contrast, Barack might plunge this country, and by knock-on effect, the world into economic depression. Which is scarier? And we are only looking at Palin as a potential threat -- Barack would have a free ride to do his evil in that Pelosi is in charge in the House. There would be no road block to economic armageddon. None.

What about the Supreme Court ... Barack might try to put Bill or Hillary on it. Scary thought. And you could be sure that the candidates proposed by the left will make Souter look like Ghengis Khan. Loony left will take on a new dimension -- look for an attempt to replicate the 9th Circuit on the big bench. McCain? Probably something to the left of Alito or Roberts, but to the right of Ginsburg and Souter. That is where he is politically -- although not where Palin is. But Palin will not be selecting anyone, and if she did find herself in the position to try, there is no way that anybody she selected would make it through the Senate. None.

From my point of view ... right now ... taking all the known risks into perspective, I think I will have to bet that McCain does not croak during his tenure. Time to remove the Obama sticker.

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