AL Gore, the IPCC and BAD SCIENCE
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the UN have produced their latest magnum opus: the Fourth Assessment. The first three, on 1990, 1995 and 2001 we saw an increasing panic -- temperatures going through the roof, massive droughts, ice metling everywhere and greenhouse gases consipring to bake us. The 4th Report does one thing clearly: it tells us that the forecasts of doom have been hopelessly overdone. In fact, the report cannot but cut every critical assessment made in the previous three reports ... we are victims of a global panic mongering for political agendas.
Now lets get this sraight: I want to gut fossil fuel emissions to create healthier air to breathe. I want to wean the US from foreign oil. I believe that there are alternatives. But I also believe that Al Gore is full of shit.
Drawing liberally from C. Monckton's (if you don't know who he is, Google it and read) latest analysis of the 4th Report, I think that there are some "bon mots" to consider. So in no particular order:
1. Globally, temperatures are NOT rising at all, and methane (an evil greenhouse gas) is falling! Since 2001 the best estimate of temperature deviation is an increase of 0.03C ... much smaller than the statistical incidence of sampling error, and hence not legitimate at all. In fact, while the rising CO2 levels are of concern, the UN had to admit that they now are forced to believe that the CO2 and other gases are reflecting much of the suns output and potentially have a COOLING effect ... not a "greenhouse" effect at all.
2. The 2007 report halves the estimate of rising sea-level from 3 feet to 17 inches. So you people in Bangladesh can sleep dry. You see, the models used tend to over-estimate sea level rising.
3. The UN points out that we have most likely been the cause of rising temperatures since 1940, and that CO2 is certainly to blame. But it fails to point out that from 1940 to 1975, the temperature FELL, even though CO2 rose every year like clockwork.
4. The UN report assumes (in several models) that the population of the Earth will top 15 billion by 2100 -- even though UN demographers believe that it will top out at 10 billion and then plummet. The maximum CO2 growth estimates leading to rises in temperature of 5-6C are predicated on 15 billion in population -- something that the UN does not officially believe, either.
5. The computer models used by the UN in 2007 and 2001 did NOT predict that the oceans are actually cooling and have been since 2003 -- the 4th Report only notes that the oceans have acted as a greater heat sink that they had previously thought.
6. The 4th report did nothing to apologize about the inaccuracies (or blatant lies) presented by the "hockey stick" graphs presented in 2001 to emphasize temperature rises and CO2 connection -- even thought the graphs have been thoroughly repudiated by statisticians. Unfortunately for us, China, India and others have used the disgrace of the Hockey Stick hoax to decline to follow any guidelines on curbing CO2 growth -- or that of particulate emissions.
7. China has 30,000 coal mines and a new coal fired powerplant coming on stream EVERY 5 DAYS and will continue to do this through 2012. Even in Britain shut down every single source of emissions now, China would have taken up the slack in but a few years.
8. China will pass the US as the leading source of CO2 and particulate emissions within two years. The trouble is that we are no longer certain of what increases in the CO2 level mean -- the 4th report postulates that reflectivity caused by the gases could even cool the earth. Even assuming that CO2 is the cause of some warming, the variability of solar output may be stronger than CO2. What are we going to do about that? The 4th Report states that the sun may have been responsible for up to 2/3 of obesrved warming (within the statistically curious guidelines that the UN choses to highlight CO2's role!). Solar scientists are predicting a decline in solar output (due to cyclical patterns) for the next 50 years.
9. Everyone is concerned about the melting glaciers ... but global ice mass has INCREASED, not decreased over the last 30 years. Mountain glaciers comprise 5% of the world's ice -- but Greenland and Antarctica share 95% of the rest. And their mass has been increasing -- that is MASS, not extent of some sea glaciers, but it is mass that counts. The loss of the Polar ice cap has perhaps increased the sea level 0.3mm per year over the last 40 years, partially offset by the increases elsewhere. The rise over the last century is about 6.5 inches. But the level has been rising for thousands of years that we are aware of. Witness the sunken harbors of antiquity.
10. The UN is concered at the rate of temperature increase of 0.13C per decade over the last 50 years. But it fails to point out that this rate was also observed between 1910 and 1930 -- when the global CO2 levels were very low and growth on a relative scale, puny
11. Higher levels of water vapor in the atmosphere -- perhaps due to greenhouses gases has had an interesting effect on deserts: the Sahara has shrunk by 300,000 sq. km in the last 20 years. If water vapor makes clouds, and clouds make rain, and clouds reflect heat away from the earth -- all true statements ... what is the net?
12. Arctic temperatures are variable: from 1920 to 1940, they were warmer than they are now by about 1c. There was also considerably less ice. The polar bears managed then too. In the Middle Ages there may have been NO arctic sea ice during the summers.
13. As some permafrost melts, we are discovering the bones of Mammoths and other creatures -- who lived there before the ice took over.
14. UN figures on CO2 production contemplate the ability to burn oil and gas (coal is a different story, but it too is finite and for most of the world, unavailable) -- what it does not address is that within a relatively short period of time, and certainly before the 2100 doomsday, it willhave become FAR too expensive to burn. Uh ... what and who is going to produce the gases that are killing the climate? Just the Chinese coal? Russian forests -- are we going to suffer deforestation to produce the energy to heat our homes?
Add it all up, and the UN has a positive agenda to induce a climate scare -- it needs to punish the energy gluttons of the US and Western Europe in favor of the developing world -- and we come to the simple conclusion that we just don't know enough about anything. However, we do know that the numbers and statistics that we have been fed over the last 40 years are contrived, biased, dishonest and politically directed. But that is not to say that I would not like to provide my grandchildren with renewable energy sources -- clean water, clean air, an envirnoment free from carcinogens. And free from whackos with head gear and a desire to terminate my existence because I disagree with their notions of the devine.
Now lets get this sraight: I want to gut fossil fuel emissions to create healthier air to breathe. I want to wean the US from foreign oil. I believe that there are alternatives. But I also believe that Al Gore is full of shit.
Drawing liberally from C. Monckton's (if you don't know who he is, Google it and read) latest analysis of the 4th Report, I think that there are some "bon mots" to consider. So in no particular order:
1. Globally, temperatures are NOT rising at all, and methane (an evil greenhouse gas) is falling! Since 2001 the best estimate of temperature deviation is an increase of 0.03C ... much smaller than the statistical incidence of sampling error, and hence not legitimate at all. In fact, while the rising CO2 levels are of concern, the UN had to admit that they now are forced to believe that the CO2 and other gases are reflecting much of the suns output and potentially have a COOLING effect ... not a "greenhouse" effect at all.
2. The 2007 report halves the estimate of rising sea-level from 3 feet to 17 inches. So you people in Bangladesh can sleep dry. You see, the models used tend to over-estimate sea level rising.
3. The UN points out that we have most likely been the cause of rising temperatures since 1940, and that CO2 is certainly to blame. But it fails to point out that from 1940 to 1975, the temperature FELL, even though CO2 rose every year like clockwork.
4. The UN report assumes (in several models) that the population of the Earth will top 15 billion by 2100 -- even though UN demographers believe that it will top out at 10 billion and then plummet. The maximum CO2 growth estimates leading to rises in temperature of 5-6C are predicated on 15 billion in population -- something that the UN does not officially believe, either.
5. The computer models used by the UN in 2007 and 2001 did NOT predict that the oceans are actually cooling and have been since 2003 -- the 4th Report only notes that the oceans have acted as a greater heat sink that they had previously thought.
6. The 4th report did nothing to apologize about the inaccuracies (or blatant lies) presented by the "hockey stick" graphs presented in 2001 to emphasize temperature rises and CO2 connection -- even thought the graphs have been thoroughly repudiated by statisticians. Unfortunately for us, China, India and others have used the disgrace of the Hockey Stick hoax to decline to follow any guidelines on curbing CO2 growth -- or that of particulate emissions.
7. China has 30,000 coal mines and a new coal fired powerplant coming on stream EVERY 5 DAYS and will continue to do this through 2012. Even in Britain shut down every single source of emissions now, China would have taken up the slack in but a few years.
8. China will pass the US as the leading source of CO2 and particulate emissions within two years. The trouble is that we are no longer certain of what increases in the CO2 level mean -- the 4th report postulates that reflectivity caused by the gases could even cool the earth. Even assuming that CO2 is the cause of some warming, the variability of solar output may be stronger than CO2. What are we going to do about that? The 4th Report states that the sun may have been responsible for up to 2/3 of obesrved warming (within the statistically curious guidelines that the UN choses to highlight CO2's role!). Solar scientists are predicting a decline in solar output (due to cyclical patterns) for the next 50 years.
9. Everyone is concerned about the melting glaciers ... but global ice mass has INCREASED, not decreased over the last 30 years. Mountain glaciers comprise 5% of the world's ice -- but Greenland and Antarctica share 95% of the rest. And their mass has been increasing -- that is MASS, not extent of some sea glaciers, but it is mass that counts. The loss of the Polar ice cap has perhaps increased the sea level 0.3mm per year over the last 40 years, partially offset by the increases elsewhere. The rise over the last century is about 6.5 inches. But the level has been rising for thousands of years that we are aware of. Witness the sunken harbors of antiquity.
10. The UN is concered at the rate of temperature increase of 0.13C per decade over the last 50 years. But it fails to point out that this rate was also observed between 1910 and 1930 -- when the global CO2 levels were very low and growth on a relative scale, puny
11. Higher levels of water vapor in the atmosphere -- perhaps due to greenhouses gases has had an interesting effect on deserts: the Sahara has shrunk by 300,000 sq. km in the last 20 years. If water vapor makes clouds, and clouds make rain, and clouds reflect heat away from the earth -- all true statements ... what is the net?
12. Arctic temperatures are variable: from 1920 to 1940, they were warmer than they are now by about 1c. There was also considerably less ice. The polar bears managed then too. In the Middle Ages there may have been NO arctic sea ice during the summers.
13. As some permafrost melts, we are discovering the bones of Mammoths and other creatures -- who lived there before the ice took over.
14. UN figures on CO2 production contemplate the ability to burn oil and gas (coal is a different story, but it too is finite and for most of the world, unavailable) -- what it does not address is that within a relatively short period of time, and certainly before the 2100 doomsday, it willhave become FAR too expensive to burn. Uh ... what and who is going to produce the gases that are killing the climate? Just the Chinese coal? Russian forests -- are we going to suffer deforestation to produce the energy to heat our homes?
Add it all up, and the UN has a positive agenda to induce a climate scare -- it needs to punish the energy gluttons of the US and Western Europe in favor of the developing world -- and we come to the simple conclusion that we just don't know enough about anything. However, we do know that the numbers and statistics that we have been fed over the last 40 years are contrived, biased, dishonest and politically directed. But that is not to say that I would not like to provide my grandchildren with renewable energy sources -- clean water, clean air, an envirnoment free from carcinogens. And free from whackos with head gear and a desire to terminate my existence because I disagree with their notions of the devine.
posted by Zaphod at Saturday, February 03, 2007
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